The Upper Limit

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All metrics that inform The Upper Limit Score. Updated quarterly from public sources.

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Upper Limit Score

Medium confidence

51.9/ 100Pressure

Key inputs

15% Compensation Share63/100
15% Labor Force Participation79/100
20% Real Compensation Growth47/100
15% Unemployment20/100
35% Productivity-Wage Gap52/100

Experimental composite indicator. Not an official economic statistic. Full methodology →

Score History

Upper Limit Score · 1990–present

Methodology

Productivity vs. Wages

Indexed to 1990 = 100 · Nonfarm business sector

Productivity +105%Wages +45%Gap +60pp

The growing gap between productivity (output per hour) and wages is one of the central inputs to The Upper Limit model.

Labor Markets4 metrics

labor

50.5%

-1.2pp vs prior year

Labor Share of GDP

Percent of GDP

19902026

Compensation of employees as a percent of GDP. Measures how much national income goes to workers.

Why it matters

Declining labor share is the clearest signal that workers are losing ground relative to capital. It is the defining pressure in the Upper Limit model - when this falls, the economy is approaching its structural ceiling.

labor

+44.9%

+0.6% vs prior year

Real Compensation

Indexed growth

1990 (baseline)2026

Inflation-adjusted compensation per hour since 1960. Year-over-year: +0.6%.

Why it matters

A widening gap between real compensation and productivity is the primary input to the Upper Limit Score. Workers producing more but earning proportionally less is the clearest sign of a system approaching its ceiling.

labor

61.5%

-0.8pp vs prior year

Labor Force Participation

Percent of working-age population

19902026

Share of the civilian working-age population either employed or actively seeking work.

Why it matters

A falling participation rate hides true labor market slack - fewer people seeking work means lower aggregate demand and reduced pressure on employers to raise wages.

labor

4.2%

+0.1pp vs prior year

Unemployment Rate

Percent of labor force

19902026

Share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find it (U-3 measure).

Why it matters

Low unemployment is necessary but not sufficient. Workers can be employed at wages well below productivity growth, masking real economic stress. The Upper Limit model uses it alongside labor share and wage growth.

Income & Spending4 metrics

income

$31.9T

+6.1% vs prior year

GDP

GDP in billions USD

19902026

Total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy.

Why it matters

Growing GDP can mask inequality - if output rises while wages stagnate, gains flow to capital rather than workers. High GDP growth alongside falling labor share is a key Upper Limit warning sign.

income

$52,470

-0.3% vs prior year

Real Disposable Income

Dollars per person (inflation-adjusted)

19902026

After-tax income per person, adjusted for inflation. What households actually have to spend.

Why it matters

If households can't convert economic growth into purchasing power, consumer demand becomes structurally constrained. Stagnant real income while productivity rises means workers aren't sharing in the gains they create.

income

67.4%

-0.7pp vs prior year

Consumer Spending

Percent of GDP

19902026

Personal consumption expenditures as a share of GDP.

Why it matters

Consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. If wages stagnate, consumption becomes debt-dependent rather than income-driven - creating fragility that caps sustainable growth.

income

+3.5%

+3.5pp vs prior year

Inflation (CPI)

Annual percent change

19902026

Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index. Measures how fast prices for goods and services rise.

Why it matters

When inflation outpaces wage growth, real compensation falls even if nominal wages rise. Persistent inflation tightens the Upper Limit regardless of employment levels by eroding workers' purchasing power.

Productivity1 metric

productivity

+105.3%

+2.8% vs prior year

Labor Productivity

Indexed growth

1990 (baseline)2026

Output per hour worked, nonfarm business sector, since 1960. Year-over-year: +2.8%.

Why it matters

Productivity growth is the engine of wealth creation. When it outpaces wages, the surplus flows to capital rather than workers - this divergence is the core mechanism driving Upper Limit pressure.

Corporate1 metric

corporate

12.4%

+1.3pp vs prior year

Corporate Profit Share

Percent of GDP

19902026

After-tax corporate profits as a share of GDP.

Why it matters

When profit share rises as labor share falls, income is shifting from workers to capital owners. This redistribution is a core signal of the capital-labor imbalance that defines Upper Limit proximity.

Data note: All values shown are sourced from publicly available government and academic datasets. The AI Adoption Index is a composite proxy indicator with medium confidence. See Methodology for full details.