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All metrics that inform The Upper Limit Score. Updated quarterly from public sources.
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Upper Limit Score
Medium confidence
Key inputs
Experimental composite indicator. Not an official economic statistic. Full methodology →
Score History
Upper Limit Score · 1990–present
Productivity vs. Wages
Indexed to 1990 = 100 · Nonfarm business sector
The growing gap between productivity (output per hour) and wages is one of the central inputs to The Upper Limit model.
Labor Markets4 metrics
50.5%
-1.2pp vs prior year
Labor Share of GDP
Percent of GDP
Compensation of employees as a percent of GDP. Measures how much national income goes to workers.
Why it matters
Declining labor share is the clearest signal that workers are losing ground relative to capital. It is the defining pressure in the Upper Limit model - when this falls, the economy is approaching its structural ceiling.
+44.9%
+0.6% vs prior year
Real Compensation
Indexed growth
Inflation-adjusted compensation per hour since 1960. Year-over-year: +0.6%.
Why it matters
A widening gap between real compensation and productivity is the primary input to the Upper Limit Score. Workers producing more but earning proportionally less is the clearest sign of a system approaching its ceiling.
61.5%
-0.8pp vs prior year
Labor Force Participation
Percent of working-age population
Share of the civilian working-age population either employed or actively seeking work.
Why it matters
A falling participation rate hides true labor market slack - fewer people seeking work means lower aggregate demand and reduced pressure on employers to raise wages.
4.2%
+0.1pp vs prior year
Unemployment Rate
Percent of labor force
Share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find it (U-3 measure).
Why it matters
Low unemployment is necessary but not sufficient. Workers can be employed at wages well below productivity growth, masking real economic stress. The Upper Limit model uses it alongside labor share and wage growth.
Income & Spending4 metrics
$31.9T
+6.1% vs prior year
GDP
GDP in billions USD
Total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy.
Why it matters
Growing GDP can mask inequality - if output rises while wages stagnate, gains flow to capital rather than workers. High GDP growth alongside falling labor share is a key Upper Limit warning sign.
$52,470
-0.3% vs prior year
Real Disposable Income
Dollars per person (inflation-adjusted)
After-tax income per person, adjusted for inflation. What households actually have to spend.
Why it matters
If households can't convert economic growth into purchasing power, consumer demand becomes structurally constrained. Stagnant real income while productivity rises means workers aren't sharing in the gains they create.
67.4%
-0.7pp vs prior year
Consumer Spending
Percent of GDP
Personal consumption expenditures as a share of GDP.
Why it matters
Consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. If wages stagnate, consumption becomes debt-dependent rather than income-driven - creating fragility that caps sustainable growth.
+3.5%
+3.5pp vs prior year
Inflation (CPI)
Annual percent change
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index. Measures how fast prices for goods and services rise.
Why it matters
When inflation outpaces wage growth, real compensation falls even if nominal wages rise. Persistent inflation tightens the Upper Limit regardless of employment levels by eroding workers' purchasing power.
Productivity1 metric
+105.3%
+2.8% vs prior year
Labor Productivity
Indexed growth
Output per hour worked, nonfarm business sector, since 1960. Year-over-year: +2.8%.
Why it matters
Productivity growth is the engine of wealth creation. When it outpaces wages, the surplus flows to capital rather than workers - this divergence is the core mechanism driving Upper Limit pressure.
Corporate1 metric
12.4%
+1.3pp vs prior year
Corporate Profit Share
Percent of GDP
After-tax corporate profits as a share of GDP.
Why it matters
When profit share rises as labor share falls, income is shifting from workers to capital owners. This redistribution is a core signal of the capital-labor imbalance that defines Upper Limit proximity.
Data note: All values shown are sourced from publicly available government and academic datasets. The AI Adoption Index is a composite proxy indicator with medium confidence. See Methodology for full details.